Ecological Risk Assessment of Coal Mines Across the Whole Life Cycle Based on Bayesian Network

To ensure the orderly and sustainable production of coal mines and effectively reduce the risks of ecological and environmental accidents, a Bayesian network is adopted to evaluate ecological environmental risks throughout the full life cycle of coal mine exploitation. By identifying risk points in each stage of the coal mine life cycle, a Bayesian network model covering 80 risk factors and their intercorrelations is established, which supports risk assessment, risk prediction and risk diagnosis for the whole life cycle of coal mines. Various environmental risk factors and their interactions occurring across coal mine construction, operation and closure phases are comprehensively considered. The parameters of the network topology are quantified via three integrated approaches: fuzzy theory, analytic hierarchy process and logical analysis, and environmental risks are further evaluated based on probability theory. To verify the applicability of the constructed model, a coal mine in Shanxi Province is selected as the research case to assess its ecological environmental risks. The results reveal that the overall comprehensive environmental risk probability rises from the baseline value of 20% to 28%. Solid waste risk and environmental management risk represent the dominant hazards, with their risk levels increasing by 38% and 16%, respectively. Meanwhile, groundwater risk, surface water risk, atmospheric risk and ecological risk all rise to varying degrees. This variation trend is consistent with the qualitative conclusions of environmental supervision on this coal mine, including reduced vegetation coverage, weakened water retention capacity and aggravated soil erosion caused by mountain excavation, as well as excessive fluoride concentrations generated by gangue leaching and dust pollution around gangue stockpiles. Such findings demonstrate that the Bayesian network approach is feasible for ecological environmental risk assessment of coal mines. This study provides a scientific technical framework to prevent potential ecological pollution hazards throughout the complete life cycle of coal mines, covering the pre−construction, construction, production and operation, and mine closure stages.