基于DPM−PHMiner模型的煤矿事故致因关联分析

Causal Association Analysis of Coal Mine Accidents Based on the DPM−PHMiner Model

  • 摘要: 为了深入分析煤矿事故致因因素之间的潜在关系与周期性规律,构建了DPM−PHMiner模型,统计分析2019—2023年的煤矿事故调查报告数据。采用双模态语义特征融合方法提取30个关键因素,并将其归纳为管理与制度、设备与设施、作业与操作、支护与防护、安全防护措施五大主题;利用动态剪枝增强的PHMN+算法,挖掘出34组高效用周期性关联规则;构建多维度规则评估体系,将34组关联规则划分为高、中、低三个优先级,本研究可为煤矿安全管理从均匀撒网转变为精准防控提供依据。结果表明:不同优先级致因因素与事故的关联机制存在显著差异,高优先级因素如违规操作,与事故呈现高频次、短周期、直接触发式关联,其作用迅速引发事故后果;中优先级因素如支护强度不足,与事故的关联体现为隐蔽性累积与渐进式发展,隐患不易识别,风险持续积聚直至特定条件下突破临界;低优先级因素如安全教育不足,则与事故构成长期性、系统性、间接性关联,通过塑造隐患滋生的背景环境,为其他致因创造条件或放大其效应,从而系统性抬升整体风险水平。

     

    Abstract: In order to explore deeply the potential relationship and periodic law in the causal factors of coal mine accidents, the DPM−PHMiner model was constructed to analyze data from coal mine accident investigation reports from 2019 to 2023. A bimodal semantic feature fusion method was employed to identify 30 key factors, which were categorized into five major themes including management and institutional frameworks, equipment and facilities, operational practices, support and protection measures, and safety protection strategies. By using the dynamic pruning−enhanced PHMN+ algorithm, 34 sets of high−efficiency periodic association rules were identified. A multi−dimensional rule evaluation system was established to classify these rules into three priority levels—high, medium, and low—enabling a shift in coal mine safety management from generalized monitoring to targeted risk prevention. The results showed that there were significant differences in the correlation mechanism between the causal factors of different priorities and accidents. High−priority factors, such as illegal operations, exhibited high−frequency, short cycle, and direct trigger correlations with accidents, led rapidly to accident consequences. Medium−priority factors, such as insufficient support strength, were related to accidents in the form of hidden accumulation and gradual development, which was difficult to identify hidden dangers and continued to accumulate until it broke through the critical value under certain conditions. Low−priority factors, including inadequate safety education, demonstrated long−term, systemic, and indirect correlations with accidents. By shaping the background environment where hidden dangers bred, conditions for other causes were created or the effects were amplified, thereby systematically raising the overall risk level.

     

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