融合“2−4”模型与文本挖掘的地下金属矿冒顶片帮事故致因分析

Causative Analysis of Rib Spalling and Roof Fall Accidents in Underground Metal Mines Based on the Integration of the 24Model and Text Mining

  • 摘要: 为系统识别地下金属矿冒顶片帮事故的致因及其关联,选取2013—2024年间国内139例事故调查报告作为研究样本,提出了一种基于“2−4”模型的事故致因文本挖掘方法。首先,以“2−4”模型理论架构作为致因层级分类框架,构建了一种基于掩码校正双向编码器表征语言模型(masked language model as correction BERT,MacBERT)与双向长短期记忆网络(bidirectional long short−term memory,BiLSTM)融合的MacBERT−BiLSTM文本分类模型实现事故致因自动归类;其次,基于BERT语义向量匹配算法(KeyBERT)和词频−逆文档频率算法(term frequency–inverse document frequency,TF−IDF)的组合权重,提取出50项事故致因因素;最后,利用Apriori算法挖掘致因关联规则,并开展复杂社会网络分析,以揭示事故致因因素间的关系。结果表明:提出的文本分类模型在致因分类任务上准确率达93.11%,能够较为准确地识别事故致因的类别,其中安全管理体系缺陷是导致事故发生的最重要层级因素;安全教育培训不到位、安全管理混乱、安全监管不到位、风险辨识能力不足、安全意识淡薄、围岩失稳冒落等致因具有强关联性,是导致事故发生的关键致因,应作为风险管控的重点,切实减少事故的发生。

     

    Abstract: To systematically identify the causes and correlations of rib spalling and roof fall accidents in underground metal mines, 139 accident investigation reports in China from 2013 to 2024 were selected as research samples. A text mining method for accident causation based on the 24Model was proposed. First, based on the theoretical framework of the 24Model, a MacBERT−BiLSTM text classification model was constructed for the hierarchical classification of accident causation, integrating MacBERT (Masked Language Model as Correction BERT) and BiLSTM (Bidirectional Long Short−Term Memory) to achieve automatic classification of accident causes. Second, based on the combined weights of KeyBERT and TF−IDF (Term Frequency−Inverse Document Frequency), 50 accident causation factors were extracted. Finally, the Apriori algorithm was used to mine association rules among accident causation factors, and social network analysis was conducted to reveal the correlations among these factors. The results show that the proposed text classification model achieves an accuracy of 93.11% in the cause classification task and can accurately identify the categories of accident causes. Among them, defects in the safety management system are the most important hierarchical factors leading to accidents. Inadequate safety education and training, chaotic safety management, inadequate safety supervision, insufficient risk identification ability, weak safety awareness, and rock instability and collapse are strongly correlated and are key causes of accidents. These factors should be the focus of risk control to effectively reduce the occurrence of accidents.

     

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