基于SSA−SVM模型的风化基岩含水层富水性预测

Prediction of Water Richness of Weathered Bedrock Aquifer Based on SSA−SVM Model

  • 摘要: 风化基岩含水层作为陕北侏罗系煤层主要含水层之一,严重威胁着矿井的安全生产。因此,科学准确地预测风化基岩含水层的富水性至关重要。以柠条塔煤矿南翼为例,根据钻孔资料,选取风化基岩的厚度、岩性组合指数、风化指数、岩芯采取率及埋深5个因素作为评价指标,构建了一种基于麻雀算法优化的支持向量机(SSA−SVM)模型,用于预测风化基岩含水层的富水性。研究表明,SSA−SVM预测模型相较于未经优化的支持向量机和粒子群算法优化的支持向量展现出较高的准确率; 研究区的风化基岩富水性整体为中等,空间分布不均。通过S1231工作面疏放水数据和以往突水点数据验证,与SSA−SVM预测模型分区结果吻合。SSA−SVM预测模型用以预测风化基岩含水层富水性是可行的,对柠条塔煤矿及周边矿井风化基岩含水层富水性预测有借鉴意义。

     

    Abstract: As one of the main aquifers of the Jurassic coal seam in northern Shaanxi, the weathered bedrock aquifer seriously threatens the safe production of mines. Therefore, it is crucial to scientifically and accurately predict the water richness of weathered bedrock aquifers. Taking the south wing of Ningtiaota Coal Mine as an example, according to the borehole data, five factors were selected as evaluation indexes, including the thickness of the weathered bedrock, the lithology combination index, the weathering index, the core taking rate and the buried depth, and a support vector machine (SSA−SVM) model based on Sparrow algorithm optimization was constructed to predict the water richness of the weathered bedrock aquifer. The results show that the SSA−SVM prediction model shows higher accuracy than the unoptimized support vector machine and the support vector optimized by particle swarm optimization. The weathered bedrock in the study area is generally moderately water−rich and spatially unevenly distributed. The water evacuation data of the S1231 working face and the data of the previous water inrush points are verified, which is consistent with the partition results of the SSA−SVM prediction model. The SSA−SVM prediction model is feasible to predict the water richness of weathered bedrock aquifers, which has reference significance for predicting the water richness of weathered bedrock aquifers in Ningtiaota Coal Mine and surrounding mines.

     

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